Jakarta – Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas memprediksi IHSG menguat terbatas pada Kamis (26/10/2023). IHSG hari ini diperkirakan akan diperdagangkan pada support dan resistance di level 6.825 – 6.915. Perusahaan efek itu merekomendasikan MAPI hingga LPKR masuk menu saham cuan.
“Namun tekanan obligasi Amerika Serikat (AS) kembali berlanjut, hati-hati pasar rawan koreksi,” tulis Pilarmas dalam risetnya, Kamis (26/10/2023).
Pada perdagangan Rabu (25/10/2023), IHSG ditutup menguat sebesar 27,62 poin (0,41%) ke level 6.834. Penguatan terbesar ditopang saham sektor keuangan 1,18%, sehingga menopang IHSG menguat.
Pilarmas menjelaskan, Ditengah situasi dan kondisi yang mulai membaik, lagi-lagi tekanan kembali muncul meskipun tidak separah seperti kemarin. Dow Jones 0,32%, namun S&P 500 turun 1,43% dan ditutup dibawah 4.200 untuk pertama kalinya sejak Mei silam. Sedangkan Nasdaq Composite 2,43% karena saham saham teknologi banyak kinerjanya yang meleset dari proyeksinya dan merupakan yang terburuk sejak Februari silam.
Selain memburuknya pendapatan perusahaan dari sektor teknologi, tekanan juga terus datang dari naiknya imbal hasil obligasi AS 10 tahun yang kembali menyentuh di level 4,95%. Meskipun sudah turun dari level 5.02%. “Namun secara jangka pendek kami meyakini imbal hasil obligasi AS berpotensi untuk mengalami kenaikkan kembali,” tambah Pilarmas.
Pilarmas menambahkan, hingga bulan September 2023, realisasi pendapatan APBN masih mengalami surplus. Menteri Keuangan RI dalam rilisnya mengungkapkan bahwa APBN pada September 2023 tercatat surplus sebesar Rp 67,7 triliun. Angka tersebut memberikan kontribusi 0,31% terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB).
Surplus APBN pada September 2023 ini berasal dari pendapatan negara yang terkumpul sebesar Rp 2.035,6 triliun. Sementara itu realisasi belanja negara hingga September 2023 baru mencapai Rp 1.967,9 triliun, atau mencapai 64,3% dari target belanja APBN. Alhasil surplusnya APBN tersebut seiring dengan realisasi pendapatan negara masih lebih tinggi jika dibandingkan dengan belanja negara, atau dengan kata lain realisasi tersebut telah mencapai 82,6% dari target APBN 2023.
“Pemerintah seharusnya jangan merasa bangga akan pencapaian tersebut mengingat tekanan fiscal yang akan dihadapi seiring dengan ancaman inflasi global, tren kenaikan harga minyak dunia, dan ancaman krisis pangan yang dapat membuat beban APBN sehingga akan berdampak pada pendapatan negara yang akan mengalami penurunan,” tegas Pilarmas.
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