Perekonomian Indonesia pada kuartal III-2023 diperkirakan masih dalam tren positif. Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati mengungkapkan, berdasarkan data sementara proyeksi ekonomi Juli-September 2023 di atas 5%.
“Kita perkirakan kuartal III pertumbuhan ekonomi kita tetap di atas 5%,” ujarnya dalam konferensi pers, Rabu (20/9/2023)
Ekonomi didorong oleh konsumsi rumah tangga, ekspor dan belanja pemerintah. Investasi meskipun ada ketidakpastian global dan jelang tahun politik diharapkan tetap memberikan kontribusi positif.
“Ekonomi domestik kita masih menunjukkan resiliensi dan pemulihan yang bertahap,” terang Sri Mulyani.
Proyeksi tersebut, kata Sri Mulyani mengacu pada data PMI manufaktur Indonesia yang masih ekspansif, yaitu 53,9. Padahal banyak negara dalam situasi sekarang harus rela mundur ke bawah 50.
Data positif lainnya terlihat dari Mandiri Spending Indeks. Indeks frekuensi belanja pada awal September 2023 ada di angka 386,8 sementara indeks nilai belanja di 164,9. Sebagai perbandingan, frekuensi belanja masyarakat ada di angka 360 dan nilai belanja ada di angka 163,5 pada Juli 2023. Penguatan nilai dan frekuensi belanja ditopang oleh kelompok bawah dan menengah hingga menengah atas.
Konsumsi listrik masih cukup baik, meski tumbuh tipis 0,1%. Penjualan kendaraan bermotor melambat karena basis tahun lalu pertumbuhan terlalu tinggi. “Basis tahun lalu memang cukup tinggi karena berbagai insentif untuk pembelian kendaraan bermotor dalam pemulihan ekonomi kita,” paparnya
Hingga Agustus 2023, neraca dagang Indonesia masih surplus US$ 3,12 miliar yang sekaligus membukukan catatan 40 kali beruntun. Secara akumulasi Januari – Agustus 2023, surplus neraca perdagangan mencapai US$ 24,34 miliar. Dibanding sebelumnya, surplus ini sudah menurun.
“Angka ini adalah penurunan yang cukup tajam dibanding akumulasi surplus neraca perdagangan Januari – Agustus 2022 yang levelnya di US$ 34,89 miliar atau dalam hal ini turunnya US$ 10,5 miliar,” pungkasnya.
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